Probability of 2014 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Nominees Getting In
Yesterday morning, the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame announced 15 acts that are on the ballot to be inducted in its august body. Not to be confused with the Hard Rock Casino, the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame is a museum in Cleveland, Ohio, that celebrates its new inductees with an April New York City ceremony, complete with performances and overlong speeches.
To be nominated, 25 years must have passed since an artist's first recording. Then 600 musicians, historians, and industry insiders have to give the OK. We're here to share with you each announced nominee's chance of being part of a museum in a city only Drew Carey thinks "rocks."
Chances of getting in: 1,000,000%. Every time they write the history of rock 'n' roll, Nirvana is the final chapter. There is no other band that will be nominated in the next 20 years that is as ensured of being voted in as this Seattle trio.
Chances of getting in: 90%. I would put this shock-rock quartet at 100 percent, if it hadn't already had the doors shut in its face so many times. But with a lack of other obvious inductees, this year should be the one when the Hall of Fame endorses Gene Simmons' tongue.
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Artist: The Zombies
Chances of getting in: 60%. Their songs are more famous than the band, but "She's Not There" and "Time of the Season" are timeless, and this might be the last chance to celebrate a '60s garage band.
Chances of getting in: 45%. With Public Enemy making the Hall last year, N.W.A. should be a lock to get in this year as the godfathers of gangsta rap. They would provide some star power with Ice Cube and Dr. Dre present, but many of the voters aren't fans of rap and might want to reward a rapper they're more familiar with like...
Artist: LL Cool J
Chances of getting in: 55%. Ladies Love Cool James, and so do old people who watch NCIS LA. This is a clean-cut rapper the elderly voters are more likely to get behind.
Artist: Peter Gabriel
Chances of getting in: 30%. He's already in the club with Genesis. "Sledgehammer" hasn't aged very well. They might want to wait to induct fellow Genesis alumni Phil Collins first, as his "In the Air Tonight" has aged better.
Chances of getting in: 49%. One of those classic rock staples due to get in. Unless another staple of the format takes its spot, like...
Artist: Deep Purple
Chances of getting in: 51%. "Smoke on the Water" or "Owner of a Lonely Heart"? Since Deep Purple has the closest thing to a famous alumnus in David Coverdale, I'll go with Deep Purple's chances.
Chances of getting in: 25%. The Hall hates disco, but with Donna Summer getting in a couple of years ago, it might be willing to make another exception for a group that could pass as funk and played its own instruments.
Artist: Hall and Oates
Chances of getting in: 25% This duo sold a lot of records in the 1980s, but I'm not sure if anyone out there lists them as an influence in an unironic way.
Artist: Linda Ronstadt
Chances of getting in: 10%. They might have voted her old flame Jerry Brown in as governor of California, but this boys club isn't making an exception for a woman who doesn't really rock.
Artist: Paul Butterfield Blues Band
Chances of getting in: 5%. Who?
Artist: Link Wray
Chances of getting in: 5%. Huh?
Artist: The Meters
Chances of getting in: 5%. Wha?
Yes, I know who these three artists are. Please do not fill the comment box with notes like how can you hire such an ignoramus as a music writer. But most TV viewers don't know these three acts, even though Link Wray is a guitar god. And since this isn't the Rock and Roll Hall of Anonymity...
Artist: The Replacements
Chances of getting in: 3%. If they make it in before the Pixies, the Hall loses all the credibility it already doesn't have.
Artist: Cat Stevens
Chances of getting in: 0%. If you watch Fox News, you know America still hates Muslims. No way someone currently going by the name Yusuf Islam is getting a trip to Cleveland.
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