New Poll: Connie Mack Leading Bill Nelson By Wide Margin | New Times Broward-Palm Beach


New Poll: Connie Mack Leading Bill Nelson By Wide Margin

Republican Senate candidate Connie Mack started the day yesterday with some ugly press: The National Journal was looking at the possibility that Republicans could take back the Senate in November, and they weren't optimistic about the chances:

The odds of Republicans taking back the upper chamber are no better than 50-50, even with more Democratic seats in play, a favorable political environment, and an energized GOP base," the report says. "It's not the often-maligned Mitt Romney campaign that's going to drag down the ticket; it's several of the candidates themselves."

One of the candidates they cite as one of the draggers? Mr. McGillicuddy himself.

Florida Republican insiders argue that the political environment is so tough for Democrats that Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson should be almost as vulnerable as Claire McCaskill in Missouri and Jon Tester in Montana. Even as polling shows Nelson running slightly ahead of Mack, the pessimism in GOP circles about the challenger's campaign is palpable.
Not someone a guy wants to be reading during a run for office. But just hours later, that line about Nelson polling better than Mack would be outdated -- a Rasmussen poll came out that shows Mack in the lead, by the largest margin yet.

Of 500 likely voters polled, 46 percent said they were planning on voting for Mack, compared to 37 percent for Nelson -- a virtual reversal of Nelson's 47-36 lead Rasmussen found back in April.

One notable weak spot for Nelson was, surprisingly, his support among Democrats -- only 66 percent said they were planning on voting for him over Mack or someone else. Women, too, aren't Nelson fans: While Mack leads 43 to 37 percent among men, he's beating Nelson for the female vote 48 percent to 38 percent.

Also released, earlier this week: Florida is a total toss-up in the presidential election, with Romney leading 46 to 45 percent. Both polls had a margin of error of 4.5 percent.