Poll Finds Marco Rubio Wouldn't Help Mitt Romney in Florida, but Jeb Bush Would | New Times Broward-Palm Beach


Poll Finds Marco Rubio Wouldn't Help Mitt Romney in Florida, but Jeb Bush Would

A new poll of Florida voters was released yesterday with all kinds of juicy numbers about politicians on both the state and national level. The full report is included at the bottom, but there are more facts in it than one blog post could ever hold.

The poll was conducted by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling among 700 Florida voters between April 12 and 15; the margin of error is 3.7 percent in either direction.

Here are seven of the more interesting demographic tidbits:

1. Romney is losing in Florida but is losing by less with Jeb Bush as VP.
Overall, 45 percent of voters said they would vote for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama.

That number gets much closer if he chooses former Gov. Jeb Bush as his running mate: The election would be 49 percent Obama, 46 percent Romney with Bush on the ticket.

Forty-three percent said they would vote for Romney if he ran with Sen. Marco Rubio, and 40 percent if the vice presidential nominee were Gov. Rick Scott or Rep. Allen West.

When asked about it, Rubio has said over and over again that he "will not be vice president," whatever that means. Bush demurred, saying Rubio would be the best choice. West, on the other hand, said he would totally take the job (nd actually used the topic as a fundraising tactic earlier this month.

2. Black Floridians don't like Romney at all and like him even less with Allen West.
Only 10 percent of Floridian African-Americans said they would vote for Romney over Obama. And choosing Allen West, one of only two African-American Republicans in Congress, would actually hurt Romney among black voters: That 10 percent number falls 7 percent if West is the running mate.

Romney is, however, beating Obama among white Floridians 53 percent to 42. And in 2008, 80 percent of Florida voters were white.

3. Young people dislike West more than others do.
An observation unrelated to the presidential election: 48 percent of voters under 30 years old have an unfavorable opinion of West. Among voters between 46 and 65, the number drops to 26 percent.

4. Almost all the Floridians who liked Obama in 2008 still like him.
Obama's approval rating among Florida voters who voted for him in 2008: 90 freaking percent.

Obama's approval rating among Florida voters who voted for McCain in 2008: 13 percent.

5. Romney choosing Rubio for vice president wouldn't help him among Hispanics.
When there was no vice presidential nominee included in the question, Romney lost to Obama 52 percent to 37 percent. These numbers did not change when Rubio was included.

Rubio's approval rating among Hispanics: 39 percent. Fifty-two percent disapprove, and 9 percent aren't sure.

6. Romney isn't winning over Florida moderates or women; Obama is.
Obama is doing far better with Florida moderates than Romney is: 64 percent of them have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to just 34 percent for Romney.

Obama is also beating Romney when it comes to approval from women voters: Obama has a 58 percent approval rating with women; Romney is at 34 percent.

7. There isn't a setup in which Obama can muster more than 52 percent of support.
Sure, 52 percent is enough to win, but Obama got only 51 percent of the vote even against a theoretical Mitt Romney/Rick Scott ticket. He's got a lot of people to win over down here. Here are all the matchups:

Presidential matchups
--Obama versus Newt Gingrich: Obama 52 percent, Gingrich 40 percent

--Obama versus Ron Paul: Obama 50 percent, Paul 40 percent

--Obama versus Romney: Obama 50 percent, Romney 45 percent

Presidential matchups with Floridian Republican running mates
The questions all assumed that Obama's running mate would be Vice President Joe Biden and that the Republican nominee was Mitt Romney. Here are the splits with different Romney nominations:

--Jeb Bush: Obama 49, Romney 46

--Marco Rubio: Obama 50, Romney 43

--Rick Scott: Obama 51, Romney 40

--Allen West: Obama 50, Romney 40