A Few Silly Election Predictions

-- The most intriguing Broward County Commision race is, of course, the one pitting incumbent John Rodstrom against Bryan Caletka, Carlton Moore, and Robert McKinzie. First, Moore and McKinzie have a chance because they are going to split the black vote that both of them need to have a chance to win. That leaves us Rodstrom and Caletka, a Davie councilman. And I think it's going to be close. Rodstrom has been hammered by atttack ads and push polls funded by the the Service Employees International Union. But he's also earned some extra loyalty in his district by fighting the airport expansion. And he's worked like a dog to bring in voters, knocking on doors every day (Rodstrom obviously knows he's in a real fight). Caletka is running a strong campaign and status as an outsider might help him, though his unknown status won't. I just don't see the defining issue that is going to give Caletka the momentum to unseat Rodstrom (like, say, a Swerdlow vote). So I think Rodstrom hangs on, by a hair.

-- Josephus Eggelletion walks into office. He's got three fairly strong opponents -- John Billingsley, Dale Holness, and Allen Jackson -- and that's precisely why there's no chance anyone else wins. He'll get nearly half the votes and they'll split the rest.

-- What the hell, I'll go Henry Rose over Bev Gallagher. I think people are generally disappointed in the school board and Rose is running a credible campaign.

-- The Broward County sheriff's race is the most interesting race of all -- and the most difficult to predict. Scott Israel and Richard Lemack are the presumptive frontrunners, because they have long-time local ties and big-league political operatives behind them (Judy Stern and Barbara Miller, respectively). Israel, however, has gotten some bad buzz (read: attack ads and newspaper articles) for a history of excessive force, his Republican past, and a son denied, among other things. Though Lemack has a clean record, he's inextricably tied to the historically corrupt City of Hollywood and its police department, and that brings him down a notch. Udolf and Dhanji simply have no chance. And that leaves us Wiley Thompson, who just might sneak in. I predict ... damn, this is impossible ... it's coming to me ... I see an image ... it's coming into focus ... it is ... Lemack.

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Journalist Bob Norman has been raking the muck of South Florida for the past 25 years. His work has led to criminal cases against corrupt politicians, the ouster of bad judges from the bench, and has garnered dozens of state, regional, and national awards.
Contact: Bob Norman