As pundits go, Chuck Todd usually has two feet squarely on the ground; his analysis was on the mark throughout the 2008 presidential campaign. But I think he's missing the boat with his take on Florida's Senate race.
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His theory sounds persuasive. Republican nominee Marco Rubio and independent candidate Charlie Crist would split the Republican vote, while Kendrick Meek would win based on his relative dominance in gathering the Democrat votes. The problem is that the state's Democrat base may not be as galvanized as the Republicans'; also, Crist is adept at getting independent voters, and polls have shown he'd be taking more of those swing votes from Meek than from Rubio. For Meek, the best bet is a one-on-one with Rubio.