If two Colorado State University climatologists are correct, we're going to get hit up and harassed by hurricanes more than usual this season.
Meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray are predicting from their supercool hurricane prediction base (i.e., their laptops, probably) that there will be 18 storms in total this year, nine of which will be hurricanes.
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The 18 named storms would make the 2013 season more active than the average, according to Klotzbach and Gray.
That's because the Atlantic in the tropics is warmer than usual, and also because El Niño will be rearing its punk head this year to make everything difficult. Although, if we're all nice to The Kid, sometimes it helps steer hurricanes away from Florida or messes up hurricanes altogether. But you never know with El Niño. He's a fickle little shit.
So what does this mean to us non-weather-expert nerds?
It means there is a 72 percent chance a major hurricane will hit land. Florida has a 48 percent chance of getting slammed, which is pretty much what we expect every year.
Forty-eight percent is basically we'll either get hit or we won't.
Klotzbach and Gray say that of the nine hurricanes forecast, four of them will likely become major hurricanes -- categories 3, 4 or 5 -- that can produce winds of 111 mph and greater.
And, to make things more interesting, these forecasts are expected to be on the conservative side of things, which means we're all gonna be waiting until the very last minute to pack Home Depot for batteries and wood.
The two Colorado State University climatologists and their Tropical Meteorology Project have proven to be good forecasters in the past.
Klotzbach and Gray's forecasts in 2010 and 2011 were pretty on-point. In 2010, they predicted 15 storms, and 19 formed. Last year they forecast 16 storms, and 19 formed.
THANKS A LOT, NERDS!
Hurricane season spans from June 1 to November 30.
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